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Lingfield: following low-drawn horses would probably have lost you money

Lingfield: where heroes will be made on Wednesday

  PICTURE: Jon Hoy  

 By David Ashforth 6:00PM 23 FEB 2016 

IT IS a well known fact, possibly, that most racehorses never win a race. On the one hand, this is rather discouraging, on the other it makes victory all the more significant, joyful and in need of proper celebration.

In 2014, 10,684 different horses ran on the Flat of which 4,126 (39 per cent) won a race that year. 8,497 horses ran over jumps of which 2,532 (30 per cent) won a race. Some of the ones that did not win a race in 2014 might have won one in previous years or gone on to win one subsequently, for there is always hope.

Which brings us to the apprentice race at Lingfield (4.25). It is a handicap for three-year-olds rated 46-55 but might as well be a maiden handicap, since the eight contestants boast a combined score of 0-41. When there are three joint top-weights and none of them have been placed higher than fifth, you know the race is probably a bit on the weak side.

A maiden no more

Yet by 4.35 one of the eight will no longer be a maiden and will have crossed the great divide between those that have not won a race and those that have. I’ve no idea which one it will be but it will be one of them and I hope connections celebrate gleefully. Even the other seven will still be loved by someone, although probably not in betting shops.

That handicap, in company with many of today’s handicaps, presents the sort of puzzle that Stephen Hawking would struggle to solve. For punters, an obvious solution to this difficulty – one rarely embraced – is to eschew (a good word, eschew, I must use it more often) handicaps and concentrate instead on the sort of race to be found at Ludlow at 2.10, a maiden hurdle.

It is the sort of event that, given the conditions of the race, contains a lot of what professionals call, rather unkindly, “dead wood.” The subjects of this insult may not always be “dead wood.” In time, in the right race, they may be “live chances” but today they are “dead wood.”

Process of elimination

Removing the “dead wood” from the 11 runner forest leaves five horses standing – Bryden Boy, Bugsie Malone, Oneida Tribe, Royal Milan and Some Kinda Lama. They all have their positive points although Bryden Boy has had plenty of chances.

The market will reflect all this which is not to say that there will be no “value” – a price longer than the horse’s actual chance of winning or being placed – available. I like the improving Royal Milan, who should appreciate today’s longer trip. Whether or not his price will be attractive, perhaps for a win bet with a bigger place bet on an exchange, or not remains to be seen.

Just a thought, while waiting to enjoy the veterans’ chase at Doncaster (3.30), a wonderful idea, and the reappearance of the splendid Paint The Clouds in the hunter chase (4.05) en route, presumably, to an attempt to improve on his excellent third in last year’s Cheltenham Foxhunter. All jolly interesting.

 

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