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World Class: Mubtaahij must not be forgotten in World Cup
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World Class: Mubtaahij must not be forgotten in World Cup

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Mubtaahij: will bid to give his trainer a first Dubai World Cup victory

Mubtaahij: scored in last year’s UAE Derby

  PICTURE: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)  

 By Sam Walker 1:30PM 8 FEB 2016 

WORLD CLASS: an analysis of the international scene according to Racing Post Ratings

IT MAY be harsh to describe the Dubai World Cup as two bald blokes fighting over a comb, but after watching the leading players in action last week it is hard to get excited about the richest horse race in the world.

This isn’t the fault of the organisers. They will put on a show as spectacular as ever and attract many of the best dirt horses in training. The problem is, after a discernible spell of retirements, just who are the best dirt horses in training?

All the big guns from last year, including American Pharoah, Shared Belief, Honor Code, Liam’s Map, Prince Bishop and Tonalist, have either retired or died, while those who remain have all been well and truly put in their place by one or more of the above.

Beholder managed to avoid defeat by any of the above stars and judged on last year’s RPRs she is the best dirt horse in training, but she is not on the flight list for Dubai.

With leading older horses like Effinex and Dortmund also uncertain to make the trip, we have to question just who is left to fight for that very expensive comb.

California Chrome is favourite. He was a real star in his day and came within two lengths of winning the US Triple Crown in 2014. However, he lost both starts last season and returned from injury to beat serial loser Imperative by just over a length last month.

Back at his best he would be the one to beat, but that peak RPR of 125 was achieved more than 12 months ago and there is a valid question mark over what he retains. Last time out he ran to just 116.

Second in the market is Frosted, who looked impressive when winning round two of the Al Maktoum Challenge at Meydan on Thursday.

He smashed the locals by five lengths that day, running right up to his best with an RPR of 119, although again the field lacked any real quality.

Frosted had a lot of plus signs next to his figures last year and he may yet improve and run to a low 120s figure, but he has had plenty of chances to prove himself and was beaten in seven of his nine starts last season by a total of 12 different horses.

That sort of profile isn’t what superstars are made of but he is undeniably consistent and with American Pharoah out of the way he could be in the mix to be the leading US four-year-old this term.

Another horse in that mix is Keen Ice, was also in action last week. He is known for being the only horse to have beaten American Pharoah last season, when winning the Travers Stakes.

There were extenuating circumstances that day, but if those perfect circumstances conspire again (they go way too fast), Keen Ice has shown that he will keep plugging on at the finish.

Circumstances did not conspire on Saturday when he failed to land a blow from off the pace in the Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park, finishing sixth behind another Dubai hopeful Mshawish.

This was Mshawish’s first Grade 1 win on the dirt. He won the Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap at the corresponding fixture last year. However, between those victories he was beaten a number of times on turf and dirt, running fairly consistently with a peak RPR of 115.

He was a ready two-length winner at the weekend but the form again was hardly top-class and his winning RPR of 114 should not be good enough to hit the frame in an average Dubai World Cup. He may yet go for the Godolphin Mile.

Mubtaahij won the UAE Derby on Dubai World Cup night last year and he is another booked in for the biggest prize in racing next month.

He was very impressive in that success in March, but was subsequently well beaten in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes and he disappointed on his return to action in the Firebreak Stakes last week, finishing fifth with an RPR of just 99.

He hasn’t won since World Cup night 2015, but he’s been sparingly raced. We should remember there was a lot of talent in those legs at one stage and he should improve for this latest run and appreciate the extra distance.

At this stage he looks worth a poke at a decent price (16-1). He once looked a budding champion of Meydan and if any of the expected runners are going to take this open-looking race by the scruff it could be him.

The highest RPR in the world last week came from Ertijaal (120), who carried top weight to a comfortable success in the EGA Billet Trophy at Meydan on Thursday

TOP OF THE CLASS: Ertijaal, 120, Ali Al Raihe (UAE) (EGA Billet Trophy, Meydan, 5f, February 4)

TOP LIST

Name (country trained) Race Rating
1 Aerovelocity (HK) Centenary Sprint Cup 125T
2 Not Listening’tome (HK) Bauhinia Sprint Trophy 121T
3 Ertijaal (UAE) Meydan Handicapl 120T
  Gold Fun (HK) Centenary Sprint Cup 120T
5 Frosted (US) Al Maktoum Challenge R2 119D
  Peniaphobia (HK) Centenary Sprint Cup 119T
  Songbird (US) Las Virgenes 119D
8 Decipher (Jpn) American Jockey Club Cup 117T
  Giant Treasure (HK) Stewards’ Cup 117T
  Luger (HK) Stewards’ Cup 117T


TURF

Name (country trained) Race Rating
1 Aerovelocity (HK) Centenary Sprint Cup 125
2 Not Listening’tome (HK) Bauhinia Sprint Trophy 121
3 Ertijaal (UAE) Meydan Handicapl 120
  Gold Fun (HK) Centenary Sprint Cup 120
5 Peniaphobia (HK) Centenary Sprint Cup 119
6 Decipher (Jpn) American Jockey Club Cup 117
  Giant Treasure (HK) Stewards’ Cup 117
  Luger (HK) Stewards’ Cup 117
9 Contentment (HK) Stewards’ Cup 116
  Our Boy Malachi (Aus) Expressway Stakes 116
  Reve Mistral (Jpn) Nikkei Shinshun Hai 116


DIRT

Name (country trained) Race Rating
1 Frosted (US) Al Maktoum Challenge R2 119
  Songbird (US) Las Virgenes 119
3 California Chrome (US) San Pasqual 116
  Tommy Macho (US) Fred W Hopper 116
5 La Verdad (US) Interborough Stakes 114
  Mshawish (US) Donn Handicap 114
  Mor Spirit (US) Robert B Lewis 114
  Salutos Amigos (US) Midnight Lute Stakes 114
  Taris (US) La Canada Stakes 114
  Valid (US) Hal’s Hope 114

 

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