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Harper: The dying art of advance scouting in baseball
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Harper: The dying art of advance scouting in baseball

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The number of advance scouts near home plate may be dwindling as teams rely more and more on video and analytics.Doug Pensinger/Getty Images

The number of advance scouts near home plate may be dwindling as teams rely more and more on video and analytics.

In this era of all things analytics, the Royals last season reminded everyone how valuable good scouting can be, applying detailed observations about the Blue Jays and then the Mets in ways that proved crucial to winning both the ALCS and the World Series.

In particular, their scouting reports helped them take advantage of:

— Jose Bautista’s habit of throwing to the wrong base, which led to Lorenzo Cain scoring a decisive run from first on a single in the final game of the series.

— David Price’s reluctance to throw over to first base to hold a runner close, which allowed them to steal second against him in a key situation.

— David Wright’s late-season habit of flipping throws to first base practically underhanded, which helped convince Eric Hosmer to make his run-scoring dash from third Game 5.

— Patterns that Mets’ pitchers had developed in how they held runners on base, which played a role in the Royals going 6-for-6 in stolen bases in the World Series.

Most of that intel came from their own scouts, including Paul Gibson, the ex-Mets pitcher and Long Island native, but before the World Series the Royals also reached out to Nationals advance scout Bob Johnson, who provided them with his observations on the Mets.

“I helped give them a read on some things the Mets did,” Johnson says. “Their pitchers had gotten into some real patterns that made it easier to run on them. It allowed the Kansas City runners to break on first move.”

Normally Johnson wouldn’t have been willing to tell me this, he was saying by phone on Friday, but he is no longer employed by the Nationals, having been let go during the off-season, and he hasn’t been hired elsewhere yet either.

Johnson, a former high school baseball coach in New Jersey who has scouted for several organizations, including the Mets, says he is optimistic about getting another job, but is pretty sure it won’t be in his long-time role as an advance scout.

“The job is disappearing,” Johnson said. “Only about a half-dozen teams still use an advance scout. Most teams use video and analytics instead. That’s the trend, and it’s fine — unless you’re trying to win.”

Yes, Johnson naturally has strong feelings about the importance of the advance scout, someone who spends practically the entire season on the road, staying a series or two ahead of his own club, compiling a report on an upcoming opponent.

“Video is great but there is a lot it doesn’t tell you,” Johnson said. “It doesn’t show how the defense, how outfielders react to the ball off the bat, or why a hitter isn’t handling a certain pitch because he has a thumb injury.

“There are a lot of things you pick up by being at the ballpark. You watch the catcher’s feet. Last year there was a catcher who tipped every pitch by the way he set up with his feet — a good advance scout sees that and reports it.”

Johnson doesn’t mind telling you that he was good at his job, or that it’s not for everybody. He has been an advance scout for some 20 years, spending what he estimates was 150 nights a season in hotels.

He advanced for the A’s, Rangers, Mets, Braves, and Nationals, usually moving on for better opportunities. But after last season he says he was told the Nationals were “going in a different direction” in their preparation.

“I’m being replaced by three computer guys,” Johnson said. “Two of them I worked with last year. I gave them the eyes on the field to go with computer statistics and analytics stuff.

“I had a passion for it. I would study the video and stats myself and apply it to what I saw on the field. I felt the Nationals were as prepared as any team in the league because of all that.”

For example?

“There were about five different Daniel Murphys last year. He makes adjustments during the season as well as anybody, and he’s a completely different hitter when he’s looking away compared to when he’s looking in. You need to see his last 20 at-bats coming into a series.”

There’s no doubt scouts can provide details that help win games, so it’s strange that in a multi-billion dollar industry so many teams are eliminating advance scouts to save a few bucks.

Meanwhile, all contending teams still do send scouts out in September and October to prepare for playoff opponents. It paid off for the Royals last season, but not so much for the guy who helped them with information he compiled about the Mets all season.

Masahiro TanakaJohn Raoux/AP

Masahiro Tanaka

NOT TURNING IT LOOSE
Though it didn’t get a lot of attention, Yankees pitching coach Larry Rothschild last week sounded an alarm of sorts regarding Masahiro Tanaka, indicating the Japanese star seems to be protecting his much-publicized right elbow.

After Tanaka gave up seven runs on nine hits in four innings on Wednesday against the Nationals, Rothschild said that Tanaka needs to “get back to throwing the ball and trust everything is going to be where it needs to be.”

Tanaka had surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow during the off-season, and, of course, he has a tear in his elbow ligament that was diagnosed in July of 2014. Though he was able to pitch fairly effectively last season, he hasn’t been the ace the Yankees need since then, and Rothschild indicated a cause and effect.

“Some of the stuff starts with going back to even last spring with his arm and just trying to protect it,” Rothschild said. “Not getting after it so much as trying to make sure he’s healthy.

“You want to be healthy but you want to be healthy in the context of throwing the ball the way you can and turning the ball loose the way you can. I think that’s where we’re at right now.”

That’s a rather revealing analysis, and if Tanaka can’t turn it loose, to use Rothschild’s words, you wonder if the Yankees at some point consider discussing with him the possibility of having Tommy John surgery.

FROM LEFT FIELD
Juan Lagares in left field? Why?

Terry Collins did some experimenting last week, putting Lagares in left and saying he might use him there during the season to avoid having to move Yoenis Cespedes back and forth between center and left.

And never mind that Lagares seemed to be fooled by the slice on a ball off the bat while playing left, failing to make a play on a catchable liner. More to the point, by losing 20 pounds and apparently re-committing himself, Lagares this spring has again looked like the guy who won the Gold Glove in center in 2014.

Clearly, he’s significantly better there than Cespedes. Meanwhile, Cespedes won a Gold Glove last year for his play in left with the Tigers, before the trade to the Mets, so moving there shouldn’t be an issue — either for full games or the late innings when Collins wants to use Lagares for defense.

Collins obviously is trying to make Cespedes as comfortable as possible, but it can’t be to the detriment of the team.

And chances are it won’t be. A source in the organization indicated the Mets’ front office isn’t on board with the idea, and probably would intervene if Collins went ahead with such a plan once the season begins.

NEGRON’S A KNOCKOUT
Yankees executive Ray Negron’s son, Joey, has reached the finals of the Daily News Golden Gloves boxing competition.

The 24-year old Negron will box in the light-heavyweight finals at Barclays Center on April 18th, having won three fights to reach the finals.

And because the Yankees have an off-day on the 18th, the elder Negron says Alex Rodriguez and Reggie Jackson, Joey’s Godfather, are among those from the ballclub planning to attend.

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